I'm just going to put the OS plot progression down for both Linear and Holistic just for easy reference:
Future -- Progress -- Present -- Past
Past -- Future -- Progress -- Present
Looking at Signposts, I'd probably go with Holistic. One and Four both look good. One for the reasons @Gregolas already laid out and four because in that final signpost the Cabbie is trying to kill his fifth victim, Sherlock, right now.
For SP2 Future you've got the Pink Lady scene. The culmination of that scene is the realization that this is the work of a serial killer. Sherlock says, "We've got a serial killer. Love those. There's always something to look forward to." The Future holds another killing unless the killer is caught.
SP3 Progress is probably Sherlock finding the suitcase and bringing it home but not finding anything particularly useful. The phone is still missing. Lack of Progress. Then the police all show up and they finally figure out the significance of Rachel and the missing phone, which allows them to literally track the Progression of the killer just as he arrives at the door.
Choosing Holistic also gives us Subconscious/ Innermost Desires in RS SP3, which is likely the dinner scene when Watson is asking Sherlock about his personal life, and there's some tension concerning Sherlock's sexual preferences and him thinking Watson is coming on to him.
Then four is Conscious/ Contemplation, which is maybe Sherlock working out that Watson shot Cabbie, then confronting Watson about it. Watson plays dumb, then Sherlock suggests a course of action to prevent the police from figuring out it was Watson. Sherlock: "Need to get the powder burns out of you fingers. I don't suppose you'd go to jail for this, but let's avoid the court case." Sherlock treats it as their shared problem, their present considerations.