I’m going to assume you’re asking about the MC Problem (I wasn’t sure if you mean Kevin or Old Man Marley, and also wasn’t sure if you meant Problem element vs. just general description of problem).
Anyway, MC Problem is tricky. Looking under Threat I could sort of see any of Hunch, Determination, or Expectation as his Problem. Out of those, I’d probably pick Hunch simply because that would explain why Theory isn’t in the picture as much, being his “demotivator” that may not be shown much in this story.
So it sounds like we have the right quad at least…
To help the MC throughline, let’s go to the OS. Do you like Wisdom or Experience more as the OS Issue? I like Experience because it felt like familiarity and experience caused problems in this film. The McAllisters did what seasoned parents do and delegated to the oldest cousin (the one with the most experience), trusting her to handle counting the kids. The Wet Bandits being seasoned burglars made them think they had the McAllister house in the bag. The taller bandit insisted on leaving a “calling card” by leaving the water on, a way of gaining fame (familiarity), but this caused problems for them: at the end, the police department’s familiarity with the Wet Bandits’ mode of operation meant they could nail them for each and every house.