Alright, here’s my reasoning for a Success-ful outcome, even if the capital is the Protagonist and the Story Goal be “Maintain the Tradition of the Hunger Games”.
If the Story Goal is “Maintain the Tradition of the Hunger Games” (and perhaps even keeping a single winner), then it is true that the way Katniss and Peeta “won” upsets that.
However, the capital spins that into government favor.
In effect, the capital claims that neither Peeta nor Katniss won, but it was their relationship that won out. The old rules haven’t been nixed. At best, they are re-interpreted. There’s also no clear evidence in the first story that the Hunger Games were brought down. In fact, I’d say it’s fairly clear in the first story that the Games can and will happen again. Thus, unfortunate for the districts and for Katniss, they may have won the battle with the berries, but it doesn’t really change anything. The spark was stifled, and for now, the tradition lives on. (Also, this entire star-crossed lovers bit can be seen as the capital working to ensure their success through the use of Desire [love], which is the OS Solution.)
Finally, given this goal, then the consequence would be something like “Remembering How it Truly Was Before the Capital”, which the capital definitely doesn’t want. (And which doesn’t happen here.)
I’ll add to this that if the Story Goal is “Break Tradition” with Katniss as Protagonist and the capital as Antagonist, then the Consequence would be something like “Keep True Memories Suppressed”. So, either way, I take it to be a Success, but the interpretation of that Success seems rather free, strangely.
I also like Projection for the RS Problem and Speculation for the RS Solution.
RS Problem of Projection: The neighbors-to-possible-lovers relationship can’t really grow, and in fact, becomes more suspicious and turbulent, whenever it dwells on that memory of the bread and how unlikely it is that they could develop into anything more than that.
RS Solution of Speculation: But, when the relationship is more tolerant, and thinks about what might be possible, it strengthens and grows, though I don’t think this is ever fully utilized, leaving the RS unresolved by the end.